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Shaft failure analysis to find the point to upsize of shaft to handle it

This was an homework that I did manual calculus on it, I wanna see the real values.

Thermomechanic analysis of the input shaft of a planetary gear as part of an university workshop in Mechanical Design

A bearing supported steel shaft is investigated in this static simulation.
The goal of the project is to check whether the welded discs' can bear the fatigue loads and whether the keyway's load is in the acceptable range.

A simple static analysis is used in this case because the shaft is static and slowly rotating during operation. Inertial loads can be neglected.

Details:

In this real life engineering task there is a steel shaft with two discs welded on it. There are arms connected to the discs (not visible) which provide torque loads. The shaft is supported by means of bearings. The rotation is provided by the means of gear motor which weight is loaded on the shaft and locks the remaining degree of freedom of the system.

The dimensions are constrained by the actual design and the main parameters (shaft main diameter, bearing type) have been pre-defined. Some hand made calculations were also done which take into account the effect of stress concentration. This calculations then need to be compared to the simulation results.

Critical points are the welded discs and the keyway.